The Alcohol Industry Is Hooked on Its Heaviest Drinkers
Most ads for liquor or beer include a reminder to “drink responsibly.” Still, the alcohol industry depends on people who drink more than public-health officials say is safe.
A fifth of adults account for an estimated 90% of alcohol sales volumes in the U.S., according to an analysis published in 2023 by equity research firm Bernstein.
“Heavier drinkers are obviously where the money is,” said Philip Cook, a professor emeritus at Duke University whose 2007 book, “Paying the Tab,” was among the scientific studies analyzed by Bernstein.
That dependence has become a greater risk to companies as the U.S. government considers putting cancer warnings on alcohol packaging and lowering the recommended limit of drinks a day that people can safely consume.
The industry’s sales are declining because of consumer health concerns, expanding legalization of cannabis, the use of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and a generational shift toward less alcohol consumption. That leaves beer, wine and spirits companies more reliant on people like Kevin Turner.
“People know alcohol is bad for you, that it can be addictive. People understand that,” said Turner, 39 years old, of Orlando, Fla. “It is poison. It is delicious poison, but it is absolutely poison.”
On weeknights, Turner enjoys a couple of glasses of liquor from his home bar, which includes a dozen Scotches, as well as other whiskeys, bourbons, rums, gins and liqueurs. On weekend evenings, he often meets up with friends at a local bar for three or four beers. Turner, a former smoker, said he is confident he could stop drinking if he wanted to, but a cancer warning label or a revision to the federal dietary guidelines wouldn’t immediately change his habits.
For nearly three decades, the guidelines have said it is safe for men to have a maximum of two drinks a day and for women to have one. A standard drink measure in the U.S. is equivalent to 12 ounces of beer, five ounces of wine or 1.5 ounces of distilled spirits.
Alcohol-industry veterans say they are aware of the loyal customers but don’t market to them.
“In any category, especially in alcohol, the industry is very concerned about overconsumption,” said Ann Mukherjee, the former North America chief at Pernod Ricard who introduced an Absolut Vodka marketing campaign addressing the role of alcohol in sexual assault.
The alcohol industry, she said, would prefer to “be less reliant on just a small group driving a majority of consumption. They don’t think this is healthy for their own business, sustainability of the category, and for their own consumers.”
Today, federal rules require alcohol labels with warnings about drunken driving and drinking during pregnancy, as well as a general warning that alcohol “may cause health problems.” Beer, wine and spirits makers have corporate responsibility programs aimed at curbing underage drinking and impaired driving. And they try to avoid being seen as encouraging heavy drinking. Industry insiders say they spend more time worrying about how to attract new customers than retaining their old ones.
It is hard to pinpoint how much people drink because people often underreport their own consumption. According to survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 6% of American adults say they drink enough to meet the agency’s definition of heavy drinking: at least 15 drinks a week for men and eight drinks for women. Bernstein’s 2023 analysis put the figure much higher, finding that people who consume more than 14 drinks a week represent as much as 20% of adults in the U.S.
Federal guidelines on alcohol consumption could change this year in an update by the Agriculture and Health and Human Services departments. A report issued this month to inform the new guidelines found that for both men and women, one drink a day increases the risk of death from alcohol-related illnesses and injuries. The link between alcohol consumption and cancer risk has been established for at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus, liver, mouth, throat and voice box, according to the surgeon general. Alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the U.S., after tobacco and obesity.
The alcohol industry generally acknowledges that heavy drinking increases the risk for several types of cancer, and the industry acknowledges that some studies have linked moderate drinking with increased breast-cancer risk. But industry groups also say that alcohol consumed in moderation can be part of a healthy lifestyle for some people. Industry lobbyists are fighting to prevent any changes to the federal guidelines, arguing that the risks are already known and that the government should take into consideration a recent report showing that moderate drinking lowers mortality rates.
The discussion around the cancer risks of alcohol adds pressure to an already struggling industry.
Shares of Constellation Brands plummeted this month after the company reported lower-than-expected beer sales and a $2.25 billion write-down on its wine and spirits business. The company—which makes Modelo Especial beer, Meiomi wine and Casa Noble tequila—lowered its sales and profit forecasts.
Spirits maker Diageo has warned that it is facing weak consumer demand. And distillers in Kentucky are feeling pain as America’s bourbon boom comes to an end, leaving them with a glut of barrels. Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman last week said it would cut about 12% of its workforce, or roughly 648 jobs.
These trends could make the alcohol industry’s reliance on its most ardent fans more acute—and more fraught.
Tara Prinzivalli, 45, who lives in Staten Island, N.Y., drinks two or three glasses of wine nearly every evening at home or with her neighbors across the street. Prinzivalli, who prefers pinot grigio and Malbec, works as a radiation therapist treating cancer patients. She said a warning label about links between cancer and alcohol wouldn’t prompt her to cut down.
“Cancer is not something I think about with wine,” Prinzivalli said. “Maybe I love it too much or am just naive.”
Write to Laura Cooper at laura.cooper@wsj.com
